Explanations for What Happened in California’s Most Competitive Elections

On November 3rd, I provided some predictions for California’s top legislative and Congressional races.  With the dust settled, I can take a look back at those predictions to figure out what, indeed, happened. Overall statewide turnout hovers around 42%, the lowest level of general election participation in California history.  In the low-profile gubernatorial race, Republican…

Mid-Term Elections in the Golden State: Predictions for November 4

Tomorrow is Election Day. The following examines this year’s top races across California making predictions of the outcomes using Political Data, Inc’s valuable vote-by-mail (VBM) data and information from the Secretary of State. I’ll start with a statewide analysis to describe my methodology. As of Monday morning, vote-by-mail ballots (VBM) returns are D+4 mirroring 2010…

The California Conundrum

Editor’s Note: Earlier this month, the Hoover Institution’s Golden State Poll—a partnership between Hoover and the online polling firm YouGov—surveyed 1,000 Californians on economic and political issues. Jerry Brown is going to win on November 4, that we know. Based on the Hoover Institution’s recently released October 2014 Golden State Poll (see here for more…